It would seem that everyone is talking about the death of newspapers these days. What people are really talking about are large metros, right? I believe to make such a broad statement as "newspapers are dying" is a generalization that fails to recognize a growing segment of local newspapers. It is the suburban weekly. I have theories why so many have sprung up in recent years and how they must change in the future to establish a new paradigm of local coverage. There's no question that there will be local news coverage; I don't believe there will ever be a news vacuum as long as the first amendment isn't incrementalized into oblivion.
It's important to take a moment to examine one of the issues that have brought the newspapers to the brink of where they are.
Among all the conversation about being lazy, not caring, media bias, unwillingness to adapt, etc., I find that a very real and obvious thing happened--not overnight, but like frog who is put in the pot with the water temp slowing increasing to a boil. It is the suburbanization of major metropolitan areas. The newspaper readership slowly migrated to the suburbs whilst the newspaper and their newsrooms continued their obsession with the major metro city council and all the goings on that most of us find boring, frankly. They've been covering the hole and missed the doughnut! The migration was beyond their control, but the failure to recognize it and deal with it is their own fault. A savvy organization would have recognized the need to have their reporters out covering every suburb. The reporter should have no need to even come to the office except for the most important meetings, yet, they still came in every morning, sat down at a desk, wrote stories by calling people on the phone, and then submitting the story to the copy editors.
The question: why? With technology, there is no need whatsoever to have the reporters come in. They should be in the suburbs where the readership is. Instead, they all cluster in a big newsroom, just as they always have and focus on stories about city hall where the 'burbs don't give a whit. Talk about being locked in a paradigm. They have small bureaus in the burbs (and surprisingly, they're closing them!); they should have the small bureau downtown and be shifting their talent to the burbs now.
So the question is, what form will the medium take? My personal view is that the local weeklies will morph into a different ilk of newspapers. If the large metro disappears, the role of the local weekly will shift. They will see their roles as being broader--that being to hold the powerful accountable, to guard the public interest. Today, the local weekly is a lot of feel good, Eagle Scout, garden club, school and chicken dinner coverage. That is an essential role and (dare I say) the responsibility of a local weekly paper--and one that readers can't get enough of. The rule: relevance is an algorithm of timeliness (an event that took place a month ago has less relevance than one occurring yesterday), geographic proximity (people care more about the pothole at the end of their street than some politician who was caught taking bribe in the metro center 10 miles away), and event weight (9-11-01 was a major event to all of us). If we know the Eagle Scout, there is greater relevance because of the geographic proximity to the individual.
But imagine what life will be like when the journalists who view themselves as investigative reporters are allowed to do what they should do well--hold the powerful accountable. But they'll cover news from the suburbs--where the readership is. And they'll serve as important links to television stations who want and need to reach the same audience (let's face it; they'd best learn from the newspapers that giving face time to some metro politician who, in no way has an effect on the lives of most people outside the city limits isn't going to be a recipe for building viewership). As a colleague once said of newspapers who were obsessed with some petty criminal who happened to occupy a city seat, "we think it's sad and pathetic, but beyond that, we really don't care."
That pretty well sums it up.
And what if the major metro were to put a digest together of the major stories from all the suburban papers?
I believe I have just laid out a survival plan for the metropolitan newspaper. It is essential to their continued existence. Unfortunately, most will die before they ever "get it." But, for those who are smart and realize that they need to invest in the war and not the battle, they'll emerge with a whole new model.
I believe Media General may be on the way to figuring it out. Their experiments have thus far been exercises in how not to do something, but they're edging ever closer, and without an investment in old ideas. That said, closing bureaus may be moving them farther from the answer.